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  2 2017-01-21T00:07:51  <bitcoin-git> [bitcoin] fanquake closed pull request #9452: Use TravisCI to enforce copyright header rules for source files (master...PR-travisci-copyright-enforce) https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/pull/9452
  3 2017-01-21T00:24:16  <bitcoin-git> [bitcoin] fanquake closed pull request #8587: Provide bloom services to whitelisted nodes. (master...WhitelistedBloom) https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/pull/8587
  4 2017-01-21T00:27:39  <bitcoin-git> [bitcoin] fanquake closed pull request #9451: CScript: remove redundant bounds check (master...remove_extra_bounds_check) https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/pull/9451
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  7 2017-01-21T01:06:48  <bitcoin-git> [bitcoin] fanquake closed pull request #9315: Request announcement by cmpctblock AFTER requesting cmpctblock/blocktxn (master...RequestAnnounceAfter) https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/pull/9315
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 44 2017-01-21T05:51:23  <bitcoin-git> [bitcoin] jtimon opened pull request #9608: WIP: split processmessages (master...2017-01-split-processmessages) https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/pull/9608
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 51 2017-01-21T06:54:38  <bitcoin-git> [bitcoin] theuni opened pull request #9609: net: fix remaining net assertions (fixes #9212) (master...net-version) https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/pull/9609
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132 2017-01-21T18:29:25  <gmaxwell> should UpdatePreferredDownload be checking ffeeler?
133 2017-01-21T18:36:38  <BlueMatt> probably?
134 2017-01-21T18:37:43  <BlueMatt> I'm hugely concerned about current fee estimation algorithms - they have effectively put floors on what they will return, when things an order of magnitude or less fee will easily get confirmed :(
135 2017-01-21T18:38:17  <gmaxwell> huh?
136 2017-01-21T18:38:43  <BlueMatt> eg currently, because no one creates txn with things less than 50 sat/byte, no fee estimation will ever return anything less than that
137 2017-01-21T18:39:08  <BlueMatt> but things with 10 often easily get confirmed after 6 or 10 blocks (now, though that can vary to a full day sometimes)
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140 2017-01-21T18:43:14  <BlueMatt> eg i just tested a tx with 0.1 sat/byte fee, and it had issues propagating, but was even still confirmed in 5 blocks
141 2017-01-21T18:43:38  <BlueMatt> but every fee estimation anywhere returns >50 sat/byte
142 2017-01-21T18:45:01  <sipa> 0.1 sat/byte? you mean 25 sat for a full transaction?
143 2017-01-21T18:45:21  <sipa> are you sure you're not off by an order of magnitude or 2?
144 2017-01-21T18:45:32  <BlueMatt> https://btc.com/1b4c848a30a73c805b36ec19142b9407fb74ffe9e41000ee87fadea8c6f582b5
145 2017-01-21T18:45:36  <BlueMatt> yes, 25 sat for the whole thing
146 2017-01-21T18:46:15  <gmaxwell> 1s/b is absurdly low, I don't think having a floor around that point is a problem.
147 2017-01-21T18:46:34  <gmaxwell> we do need to have a meaningful relay floor to prevent DOS attacks.
148 2017-01-21T18:46:37  <BlueMatt> sure, 1s/b whatever, but the floor is currently like 50
149 2017-01-21T18:46:52  <BlueMatt> i'm not complaining about relay issues, i dont care it wasnt relayed
150 2017-01-21T18:47:07  <BlueMatt> the issue is that all fee estimation stuff is currently off by an order of magnitude
151 2017-01-21T18:50:52  <BlueMatt> ironically the only one i could find that has reasonable recommendations is by a miner: https://btc.com/stats/unconfirmed-tx
152 2017-01-21T18:51:03  <BlueMatt> (ofc its looking at mempool state, which is also kinda shit, but...)
153 2017-01-21T18:54:17  <gmaxwell> mempool state is great, if you're getting it from a miner.
154 2017-01-21T18:54:46  <TD-Linux> shouldn't overpaying be easy to verify by running the estimator against historical data?
155 2017-01-21T18:54:55  <BlueMatt> gmaxwell: well, fair
156 2017-01-21T18:54:57  <gmaxwell> (thus have no issues with non-standard txn, and no its complete)
157 2017-01-21T18:55:00  <gmaxwell> er know
158 2017-01-21T18:55:51  <gmaxwell> part of the challenge is miners that @#$@# set their blocksize to less than the maximum... hard for an estimator to know if the block wasn't full because there wasn't supply or because the size was artifically restricted.
159 2017-01-21T18:56:11  <BlueMatt> TD-Linux: current algorithms are all of the "look at what we had already seen on the public network get into a block to avoid any trickery by miners" variety....the problem is these algorithms tend to have no way to correct downwards if everyone is using them
160 2017-01-21T18:56:40  <BlueMatt> gmaxwell: yea, and lots of shit that pays 0.1 sat/byte that gets mined :p
161 2017-01-21T18:59:32  <gmaxwell> BlueMatt: lots of things that get pushed through miner priority interfaces and pays god knows what gets mined.
162 2017-01-21T18:59:42  <BlueMatt> yea, that too
163 2017-01-21T19:00:20  <BlueMatt> I dont have a solution, just noting that things are currently Fucked (tm)
164 2017-01-21T19:00:37  <gmaxwell> which is why you can't simply use the existance of low fee txn getting mined as a measurement of anything. You need to use things not getting mined as your measurement. :)
165 2017-01-21T19:01:46  <BlueMatt> lol, yes, thank you, I'm well aware of restrictions, but also noting things like mempools on many public nodes being <1MB and miners who post their mempool having the same thing is pretty strong supporting evidence of things being Fucked
166 2017-01-21T19:02:04  <TD-Linux> BlueMatt, I don't see why they can't correct downward. they would just be delayed one block
167 2017-01-21T19:02:24  <TD-Linux> err nevermind I see.
168 2017-01-21T19:02:25  <BlueMatt> TD-Linux: well /someone/ has to be generating such transactions for that to happen, and in sufficient volume
169 2017-01-21T19:02:44  <sipa> i nominate BlueMatt to do the low fee tx creation job
170 2017-01-21T19:03:02  <BlueMatt> lol, i nominate petertodd...doesnt he already?
171 2017-01-21T19:04:20  <gmaxwell> we might want to consider renaming the commandline arguments for minimum relay fee... so as to throw off settings people set back during the flood attacks before there was mempool limiting that have just been forgotten.
172 2017-01-21T19:04:34  <BlueMatt> yea, i was wondering about that
173 2017-01-21T19:04:47  <gmaxwell> petertodd does create low fee txn, IIRC the openstransactions stuff produces 1s/b transactions and just RBFs them until they get mined.
174 2017-01-21T19:04:54  <BlueMatt> yup
175 2017-01-21T19:05:31  <BlueMatt> yea, I'm now wondering how much of this comes from stuff failing to relay quickly due to shit like that
176 2017-01-21T19:06:34  <TD-Linux> does anyone collect public historical mempool data?
177 2017-01-21T19:06:48  <gmaxwell> what does public mean there?
178 2017-01-21T19:07:31  <TD-Linux> posted publicly
179 2017-01-21T19:08:28  <sipa> i sort of do
180 2017-01-21T19:09:30  <gmaxwell> there are some websites with stats but they're all (?) borken because they're all (?) running the aformentioned adjusted settings.
181 2017-01-21T19:09:54  <petertodd> gmaxwell: opentimestamps starts with the lowest fee bitcoin core will accept with default settings, and increments it by the minimum fee necessary to relay a replacement each time
182 2017-01-21T19:09:57  <BlueMatt> or displaying miles of garbage that has been floating around for months :(
183 2017-01-21T19:10:59  <gmaxwell> BlueMatt: that would be an improvement...
184 2017-01-21T19:11:34  <gmaxwell> well people aren't using charting interfaces that make sense. Megabytes of mempool is a worthless metric... should be 300 all the time, short of expiration.
185 2017-01-21T19:11:46  <petertodd> gmaxwell: any miner with a mature mempool significantly greater than 1MB will likely be mining replacement OTS transactions rather than the first ones broadcast, assuming propagation is reasonably reliable anyway
186 2017-01-21T19:11:58  <BlueMatt> gmaxwell: yea, its no where near that much of the time, however
187 2017-01-21T19:12:20  <BlueMatt> petertodd: i think the propagation assumption is very weak :/
188 2017-01-21T19:13:14  <petertodd> BlueMatt: last I checked the logs, usualy the OTS tx that actually gets mined is after multiple attempts, IIRC ~5 or so
189 2017-01-21T19:13:34  <BlueMatt> petertodd: do you have stats on the propagation prior to that point?
190 2017-01-21T19:14:48  <petertodd> BlueMatt: point is, after that many attempts, it's likely that at least one will have gotten through
191 2017-01-21T19:15:36  <gmaxwell> BlueMatt: well if you want to write a PR that renames the minrelayfee option... I'd test and ACK it.
192 2017-01-21T19:16:25  <BlueMatt> yea, ok, willdo
193 2017-01-21T19:16:33  <petertodd> BlueMatt: after # of replacements before a OTS tx gets mined is 11
194 2017-01-21T19:18:46  <petertodd> BlueMatt: *average #
195 2017-01-21T19:19:17  <BlueMatt> petertodd: yea, I'm curious about propagation
196 2017-01-21T19:19:21  <BlueMatt> ping me next time it runs
197 2017-01-21T19:20:15  <petertodd> BlueMatt: it's a fully automated thing that's constantly running...
198 2017-01-21T19:20:39  <BlueMatt> well whats the current txid/feerate?
199 2017-01-21T19:20:57  <petertodd> BlueMatt: in 44s I'll give you a txid...
200 2017-01-21T19:21:47  <petertodd> BlueMatt: oh, wait, no a bit longer than that... gotta wait for a block
201 2017-01-21T19:22:58  <petertodd> BlueMatt: after a timestamp is confirmed, it waits a minimum timeout interval, then sends a timestamp tx the next time a block is found; after that every block found results in the fees being bumped
202 2017-01-21T19:24:32  <BlueMatt> k
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204 2017-01-21T19:33:32  <petertodd> BlueMatt: just checked my logs, looks like 50% of the time where multiple replacements happen, the last replacement to be sent is the one that gets mined
205 2017-01-21T19:34:01  <petertodd> BlueMatt: so I'd say that's pretty suggestive evidence that about 50% of the hashing power is mining opt-in RBF
206 2017-01-21T19:34:54  <petertodd> here's a recently sent txid, the start of a new replacement chain: 2adceebdd5149b9f6c27764f7a619e69487e55ac37bee2d6f492067585b23f0e
207 2017-01-21T19:34:59  <BlueMatt> hmm, or at least a big chunk (eg btcc and bitfury, i assume)
208 2017-01-21T19:36:44  <BlueMatt> in any case, regarding ignoring opt-in rbf for fee calculation, i suppose it might make sense if we only use it for high-confirmation requests (eg 3/10 confirmations)
209 2017-01-21T19:36:45  <gmaxwell> well it's really easy to see who does and doesn't... the ones that don't (e.g. viabtc) collect a lot less in fees.
210 2017-01-21T19:36:57  <BlueMatt> but it certainly will have an impact on our 95% threshold
211 2017-01-21T19:38:21  <petertodd> BlueMatt: https://0bin.net/paste/zzWuyYFWyZdkufmh#Y8Zwe0qb684VrruOQC8ZbQ2ovgqE3XLXoe-Ca+w4xn0 <- look for yourself; that's all the replacement chain ends since september
212 2017-01-21T19:57:05  <morcos> BlueMatt: take a deep breath!  this is actually one thing fee estimatation does pretty well
213 2017-01-21T19:57:20  <morcos> (oops, didn't catch up all the way on backlog)
214 2017-01-21T19:57:53  <morcos> the reason we don't get estimates that low is the threshold is set very high and we don't have estimates for greater than 25 blocks
215 2017-01-21T19:58:13  <BlueMatt> im aware
216 2017-01-21T19:58:30  <BlueMatt> but that doesnt explain why estimates are currently in the 50s, and not the 10s
217 2017-01-21T19:59:24  <morcos> it does explain, the estimate is answering the question of i want a 95% chance of being filled in my target
218 2017-01-21T19:59:39  <morcos> 10s will not get you filled withing 25 blocks wiht 95% chance
219 2017-01-21T19:59:53  <BlueMatt> yes, see later discussion, i believe that is in part due to propagation issues
220 2017-01-21T20:00:39  <morcos> 10 sat very recently has had a 75% of being confirmed in 16 blocks and over a longer time period a 75% chance of being confirmed in 32 blocks
221 2017-01-21T20:00:46  <morcos> for 95% chance you have to go up to a whole day
222 2017-01-21T20:00:59  <morcos> thats not due to propagation issues i doubt
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225 2017-01-21T20:01:11  <morcos> i think pretty much everyone would propagate > 10s byte
226 2017-01-21T20:01:27  <morcos> thats due to blocks being mostly full of stuff that pay more than that
227 2017-01-21T20:01:33  <morcos> as mentioned, recently it has come down
228 2017-01-21T20:01:56  <BlueMatt> im not convinced...many blocks being generated now are not full because there arent txn to include if you make 8 outbound connections
229 2017-01-21T20:02:24  <BlueMatt> on some of my public non-listening nodes they do not have 1MB of txn in their mempool
230 2017-01-21T20:02:42  <BlueMatt> (and havent all day)
231 2017-01-21T20:03:51  <morcos> i'd bet you just happen to be looking at lull in transaction backlog
232 2017-01-21T20:04:10  <BlueMatt> these nodes have been online for months
233 2017-01-21T20:04:11  <morcos> if it stays like this for a week... estimates will come down
234 2017-01-21T20:04:27  <BlueMatt> thats possible, but also concerning
235 2017-01-21T20:04:30  <morcos> yes, i'm saying a few days ago.. your mempool had more expensive txs in it
236 2017-01-21T20:04:36  <BlueMatt> 10 sat very recently has had a 75% of being confirmed in 16 blocks
237 2017-01-21T20:04:42  <BlueMatt> what is your "very recently"?
238 2017-01-21T20:05:40  <morcos> checking..  normal fee esitmation has a half life of about 2.5 days
239 2017-01-21T20:06:16  <morcos> i have a node with short term and long term estimates
240 2017-01-21T20:06:29  <morcos> the short term estimate has halflife of 6 hours
241 2017-01-21T20:07:08  <morcos> sigh.. just realized it crashed 2 days ago...  so that number was from 2 days ago
242 2017-01-21T20:07:17  <BlueMatt> ahh, grrr
243 2017-01-21T20:09:29  <morcos> it is true that the existing algorithm doesn't respond very quickly to changes in conditions
244 2017-01-21T20:09:36  <morcos> anyway.. i have to run now.. i'll restart that node
245 2017-01-21T20:09:49  <morcos> and we can discuss in more detail later..  but i have TONS of historical data on this...
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247 2017-01-21T20:10:31  <morcos> the most important thing to actually let people place lower fee txs would be to have a way to say something like i want a 75% change of being confirmed in the next 6 hours
248 2017-01-21T20:10:44  <morcos> in otherwords be able to decrease confidence and increase target
249 2017-01-21T20:10:57  <morcos> then you'll get much lower estimates
250 2017-01-21T20:11:48  <BlueMatt> yes, I super think we should set lower confidence thresholds for people who ask about 20 blocks
251 2017-01-21T20:12:16  <BlueMatt> i mean if you're asking about 20 blocks I'd hope you understand its +/- 100 at that point
252 2017-01-21T20:12:37  <morcos> agree entirely
253 2017-01-21T20:12:54  <morcos> and its easy to do combo stuff
254 2017-01-21T20:13:15  <morcos> ok well they want 20 blocks lets give them a 50% chance its within 20, but a 90% chance its within 40
255 2017-01-21T20:13:39  <morcos> i mean you just ask both questions and give the max
256 2017-01-21T20:13:45  <BlueMatt> yea
257 2017-01-21T20:13:55  <BlueMatt> i mean that sounds like a uselessly complicated api
258 2017-01-21T20:14:07  <BlueMatt> (how many people will actually use that?) but maybe
259 2017-01-21T20:14:23  <morcos> well yeah i'm assuming that the default will be that happens behind the scenes
260 2017-01-21T20:14:57  <morcos> but that if for some reason you don't like whatever magic core is doing, then you can ask the direct questions
261 2017-01-21T20:14:58  <BlueMatt> sure, ok
262 2017-01-21T20:15:03  <morcos> anwyay, lets discuss later...
263 2017-01-21T20:15:08  <morcos> got to run
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277 2017-01-21T22:28:45  <morcos> BlueMatt: I have another node that has been consistently running that keeps estimates out to 1000 blocks but only at the default decay...
278 2017-01-21T22:29:54  <morcos> For now it has enough data to accurately report lower fee rates..  but you are right actually that there are very few txs down there.. and so if no one is asking about those less quick confirmations.. (b/c we don't give them a way to)
279 2017-01-21T22:30:22  <morcos> then no one will places txs at those lower feerates and we may eventually not have any data points
280 2017-01-21T22:31:16  <morcos> so probably we should provide that opportunity sooner rather than later..   i wrote the code over a year ago.. but it was a bit complicated and i didn't want to worry about tryng to get it reviewed
281 2017-01-21T22:32:29  <morcos> anyway, here is some data..   # blocks target:   95% threshold (current default)   ,  75% target (maybe what we could give)
282 2017-01-21T22:33:56  <morcos> 16: 60000 , 4600
283 2017-01-21T22:35:09  <morcos> 32: 40000, 4600
284 2017-01-21T22:36:16  <morcos> 64: 10000, 2500 (can't get lower due to lack of data)
285 2017-01-21T22:37:15  <morcos> 128: 4600, 2500
286 2017-01-21T22:38:14  <morcos> My guess is things less than 10000 (10 sat/byte) have a problem reaching the very high thresholds b/c there are probably some miners with minrelayfee set at 10
287 2017-01-21T22:39:47  <morcos> for good measure
288 2017-01-21T22:40:05  <morcos> 8: 65000, 15000
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291 2017-01-21T23:30:46  <BlueMatt> morcos: units???
292 2017-01-21T23:32:04  <gmaxwell> So I have a question-- would we ever want to have support for trusted feerate information? e.g. to be used when your own estimator doesn't have enough data, or such that it only decreases your estimates?
293 2017-01-21T23:33:32  <BlueMatt> if we have bumpfee........maybe
294 2017-01-21T23:33:58  <BlueMatt> i mean its not like all other wallets dont have to....
295 2017-01-21T23:47:06  <luke-jr> if you mean alert-style signed-by-someone, I think it would need to be outside the reference codebase probably, unless we want to change the policy on such things altogether
296 2017-01-21T23:47:48  <luke-jr> unless perhaps it'd be signed by the miners themselves
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298 2017-01-21T23:59:27  <gmaxwell> luke-jr: I mean something you could configure, which wouldn't have a default.  "Get fee estimates from key XYZ"
299 2017-01-21T23:59:42  <gmaxwell> (or really, multisig withnessscripthash)